Category Archives: Vietnam – Energy

Energy projects regulations

新規PPP関連法が立てうる、ベトナムのインフラ開発への道筋

著者:Giles T. Cooper

翻訳:志澤政彦(Masahiko Shizawa)

原文:https://blogs.duanemorris.com/vietnam/2018/06/19/will-a-new-ppp-law-pave-the-way-for-vietnams-infrastructure/

インフラというボトルネックに、ベトナムの急成長が直面している。政府には、今まさに必要な道路、鉄道、トンネルに資金を投下できるほどの予算がない。そこで専門家が目を向け始めているのは、民間セクターである。

この制約がある以上、非国家セクターの資金を輸送インフラ開発のため継続的に活用することが今すぐ必要となる。アジア開発銀行(ADB)によれば、2015年から2020年までの間のインフラへの投資のため、ベトナムは最大170億米ドルを必要とするだろうとのことである。

近年、ベトナム政府は官民連携(PPP)プログラムの下で投資プロジェクトに透明性を与えるよう進めてきた。PPPは、政府機関と民間投資家が協同してなす投資の一形態であり、インフラの建設、修復、運営、並びに管理、及び公共サービスの提供のために行われる。政府はPPPにより、開発目標達成のため民間セクターの効率性と専門性を活用することができる。

そうはいっても、そうしたプロジェクトの持続的な実施を阻む欠点や限界があり、現状で名乗りを上げるのに投資家は慎重を期している。

投資を勧奨する政令が提出されてきてはいる。しかし、その条件は魅力的とはいえず、そのようなプロジェクトに必要な柔軟性がないとの批判もある。PPP投資活動の主な規制は以前、PPP投資に関する政令15/2015/ND-CP号及び入札法の実施指針である政令30/2015/ND-CP号であった。

この国は、1990年から2016年までに総額162憶米ドルにも及ぶ84件のPPPプロジェクトを実施してきている。うち79%はエネルギー関連のものであった。 一方、2011年のPPPパイロットプログラムが制定されて以来、この法的枠組みを利用した新規PPPプロジェクトは一切登録されていない。

政府は最近、政令15/2015を改正し、ベトナムにおけるPPPプロジェクトの分野、投資条件、手続を特定した政令63/2018(政令63)を発行した。この新たな政令により、PPPプロジェクトにおける投資家の資本比率が20%にまで引き上げられる。政令63は2018年の6月に施行された。

これで十分といえるか

BOT(Build-Operate-Transfer)方式とBT(Build-Transfer)方式のプロジェクトに対する調査・監査結果によれば、そのほとんどにおいて、投資家選定の際の入札が限定され、低い競争性と透明性の欠如を招いたとのことである。また、プロジェクトの通知は未だにオープンな方法で実施されていない。

同時に、プロジェクト実施の管理は非効率的であり、建設作業の低質化等の様々な問題を引き起こしている。

これらの問題に対応して投資を促進するため、ベトナム国会は政府に、上記のような難点や法的制限を取り払うようなPPP関連法を作るよう求めた。

PPP関連法の成功に必要な3要素

  • 明確なリスク共有メカニズム

当局は未だ、政府がデベロッパーのため一定の最低収益を保証し、それに至らない場合に補填するようなリスク共有メカニズムを、明確に打ち出してきてはいない。この点は、プロジェクトがしばしば重大なリスクを伴うインフラの場合には特に重要である。規制の明確さにより投資家の信頼を得られるのではないだろうか。

現状のモデルでは、ほとんどのリスクを民間セクターに転嫁してしまっている。民間の投資家や事業者の誘致には、透明性のある政策枠組みと公平なリスク分配が鍵である。同様に、明確に定義されたプロジェクトの射程と期待できる金銭的な利益の適切な保証を伴った魅力的な取引のストラクチャーによって、PPPへの参加が奨励されるものと思われる。

  • 為替レート保証

長期的な融資は外貨によってなされるものの、ベトナムのインフラプロジェクトの収益は現地通貨ベトナムドンによる。これだと、プロジェクトの収益性に負の影響をもたらす。新たなPPP関連法を成功に導くには、長期的な建設プロジェクトの中で投資家が同等の交換レートを確保できるよう、政府による兌換保証メカニズムを盛り込む改善が必要となろう。

海外への外貨送金の制限も縮小される必要があろう。

こうした障害や通貨変動のリスクは、投資家の信頼に大きな影響を与える。これらを取り除くことが、この国の継続的前進に必要な種類のプロジェクト誘致に重要であろう。

  • 金銭的インセンティブ

典型的な長期投資であるインフラプロジェクトには、投資家に巨大な建築に必要な20年から30年もの間の関与をさせるため、対価としての追加のインセンティブや収益の保証が必要となろう。

このリスクを相殺するために、政府は開発の波及的効果の一部を投資家に報いることを考えてもよいだろう。インセンティブがあれば、収益が交通の流れや将来の予測不可能な状況に依存するといった、インフラ開発に内在的な不確実性を減らすことができるだろう。

要するに、やる気のある投資家の誘致にベトナムが必要なのは、信頼できる政策及び規制、加えて投資家の信頼を得られるようなPPPに特化した政府部門といった、透明性、公平性、予測可能性を確保できる枠組みである。

ライフサイクルコスト、安全性、レジリエンス(強靭性)、そして環境への影響といったその他の要素も、考慮される必要がある。

ベトナムのインフラ開発への需要は揺るぐまい。しかし、現状の立法状況が実現可能または収益性のあるPPPプロジェクトに繋がるとはいえない。PPP関連法の上述のような点をクリアにすれば、透明性を向上し、この国に目を向けている事業体のリスクを減らし、もって状況の改善が見込めるだろう。

ベトナム投資に関する情報については、GTCooper@duanemorris.comよりGiles弁護士または当事務所の弁護士一覧の弁護士にお問い合わせください。Giles はドウェイン・モリス・ベトナム法律事務所の共同代表であり、ドウェイン・モリス・ホーチミン支所の支所代表です。

ベトナム:インフラ開発のジレンマにグリーンボンドは効くか著者:Giles T. Cooper

翻訳:志澤政彦(Masahiko Shizawa)

原文:https://blogs.duanemorris.com/vietnam/2018/05/15/are-green-bonds-the-answer-to-vietnams-infrastructure-dilemma/ 

ベトナムを含む東南アジア諸国では、急成長とともに安定した資金源の確保が困難になってきた。

このことは、インフラ事業において顕著である。アジア開発銀行(ADB)の報告書によると、経済成長に伴い、2030年までにこの地域では2.8兆米ドルに相当する道路、橋梁、鉄道が必要になるとされている。

不安定さを増す政治情勢に直面している東南アジア諸国は、この先数年のインフラ開発の資金調達の選択肢としてより安全なものに目を向けている。「一帯一路」政策の下ですでに1兆米ドルものプロジェクトを支援してきた中国への過剰依存は、国内的解決策を経済が志向するにつれ、その規模が縮小されていくものであろう。従前に表明した境界線を踏み越えようとする中国の計画への恐怖は、資金の不正流用及び失敗したプロジェクトという具体的教訓と相まって、この地域周辺の国々に「一帯一路」の活用の再考を迫ってきた。

南シナ海の領域問題をめぐる政治的緊張及び増加傾向にある国際的な保護主義を前に、ベトナムのような国々は将来的な資金調達を自前で行う途を探る方向でいる。この地域全般で国家予算への負担は増加傾向にあり、この先数年で強く求められる成長のため投下すべき他の資金元を探そうとしている。一つの提案は、「グリーンボンド」の発行促進である。

「グリーンボンド」について知らなければならないこと

グリーンボンドは債券の一つであるが、発行者によって調達された資金は「グリーン」なプロジェクト、つまり、環境に配慮し、気候への懸念を考慮に入れたものに割り当てられる。グリーンボンドの発行が特に利益になるセクターは、再生可能エネルギー、インフラ、および建設業界である。

道路、橋梁、トンネル、そして鉄道の建設には、地域的及び全国的な気候に多大な負担をかけてしまう。そのため、環境フットプリントの低減を志向するプロジェクトの優先度は最も高い。

環境に配慮したプロジェクトに資金調達を集中させることに加えて、グリーンボンドは発行者の持続可能な開発への取り組みの深さを強調する意義もある。さらに、発行者はグリーン・ベンチャーにのみ投資をする特定のグループのグローバル投資家にアクセスできるようになる。国外のプレーヤーによるグリーンな投資への注目が高まっている中、資本調達のコスト削減にも貢献しうる。

ベトナムにとって意味するものとは

ドイツの開発機構であるGIZによれば、現在の炭素依存的成長からより持続可能な道筋へと移行し、その約束草案(Intended Nationally Determined Contribution、INC)に向けた行動をとるため、ベトナムは2020年までにおよそ307億米ドルを必要としている。

グリーンな成長のための資金のうち30%程度は国家予算、すなわち中央と各省の予算及び政府開発援助、からの拠出が見込まれているが、残りは民間セクターから供給されることとなるとみられる。

ベトナム政府が2011年から2020年の期間について承認したベトナム・グリーン成長戦略(Vietnam Green Growth Strategy, VGGS)の下では、資本市場がその目標達成のカギとなるだろう。グリーンボンドが死活的な役割を果たすのは、まさにこの点においてである。グリーンなプロジェクトや事業体のため特別に資金調達を行い、グリーンな商品のデリバティブの流通の素地を作り、さらに民間セクターの投資を持続可能な開発のため活用することになる。

国外からの関心としては、ベトナムのグリーンボンドの発行により、持続可能な開発、再生可能エネルギー、そして環境に配慮した成長を志向している国際投資家の誘致が期待されている。世界中の投資家が、気候変動の課題やエネルギーの移行につき、前にも増して注視している。環境問題を考慮に入れた投資ツール、特に開発途上国におけるものについて要求する投資家は、増加の一途を辿っている。

この地域で、ベトナムが持続可能な資金調達の見通しを見据えている唯一の国というわけではない。アセアン・グリーンボンド基準(ASEAN Green Bonds Standards、AGBS)が2017年11月に開発・実行され、アセアンでのグリーンボンドの発行に共通の基準が制定された。マレーシア、シンガポール、インドネシアの会社は、すでにアセアン・グリーンボンドと称された債券を発行している。

これらのグリーンボンドの発行によって調達された資金は、再生可能エネルギー、廃棄物処理、グリーンな建築物やインフラといった、持続可能性の要件を満たしたプロジェクトに配分され、さらに統合、連帯、アセアン全体の成長といった共通の目標に貢献するものである。何よりも、地域のリーダーたちは将来世代の犠牲のもとに成長は成り立たないことに気づいてきている。AGBSのような新たな取り組みが、環境に配慮した投資への資源の分配を促進するだろう。

成長不全を来しているグリーンな成長

2020年までに達成されるべき指標の一つは、グリーンボンド市場を、現在およそ90兆米ドルのグローバル債券市場の少なくとも1%にまで拡大することである。これを現実のものとするため、ソブリン債発行者は断固たる決断をする必要がある。

流動性の欠如、債券の構造の限定的な多様性、及び確実に収益の見込めるプロジェクトの定期的で大きな流れの不在といったものが、未だにアジアの現地通貨によるグリーンボンド市場の特徴である。

加えて、社会的責任を果たそうとしている投資家からの恒常的な要求はまだ限定的であり、この市場の成長の可能性を阻んでいる。

そうはいっても、ソブリン債発行者が環境を整備し、強力な枠組みが適用される限り、現地通貨でのグリーンボンド市場の成長の見込みは大きい。制約となりうるのは、確実に収益の見込めるグリーンな投資の数と大きさであろう。

もしベトナムが「グリーンボンド」の動きを十全に活用しようとするなら、上述したような方法での資金の注入が解決策を示してくれるだろう。それは、インフラ事業における資金調達の穴を埋め、より速い拡張に向けた基礎を固め、そして、これまで長い間痛めつけてきた環境には休息をもたらすものであるはずだ。

ベトナムのグリーンボンドに関する情報については、GTCooper@duanemorris.comよりGiles弁護士または当事務所の弁護士一覧の弁護士にお問い合わせください。Giles はドウェイン・モリス・ベトナム法律事務所の共同代表であり、ドウェイン・モリス・ホーチミン支所の支所代表です。

What’s next for green energy in Vietnam – 4 steps to the future

Now that the United States has retreated from the Paris Climate Accords, and relinquished its leadership role in the fight against climate change, it remains to be seen whether smaller nations will stick to their pledges of greenhouse gas reduction.

Eyes are on countries like Vietnam to see if they keep to their commitments or revert to the pursuit of cheap and dirty coal-powered solutions for their energy needs.

Vietnam, in particular, faces some of the biggest risks. Global warming is a major threat to the country, where rising sea levels are predicted to swallow up nearly half of the Mekong Delta, a crucial area for domestic food production, in coming decades.

Currently, coal-fired plants in Vietnam contribute to thousands of premature deaths and air quality in big cities is getting worse. In 2017, the capital Hanoi enjoyed just 38 days of clean air, with contaminant levels four times those deemed acceptable by the World Health Organization.

Business as usual?

Unlike Obama, the Trump administration seems unlikely to apply any real pressure on other countries to pursue clean energy or combat climate change, and so it will be up to domestic forces to really push for change.

According to the government’s current national plan, electricity generated from coal will rise five-fold between now and 2030, and GHG emissions will increase in lockstep. This is at odds with Vietnam’s pledge to the Paris Climate Accord, which targets 8 percent emissions reduction by 2030, and could rise as high as a 25 percent reduction with international support, such as financing for solar panels and wind turbines.

Energy and environment experts worry that the country’s next national power development plan, which is under revision this year, could hold to those figures or, worse, embrace a more aggressive coal strategy.

The story, however, is not all doom and gloom. Vietnam does have the potential to become a regional clean energy leader, if only the country’s energy development and investment environment can be reshaped. Business involvement in this process will be crucial, as the commercial and industrial sectors consume more than 60 percent of Vietnam’s electricity.

Khanh Nguy Thi, founder of the Vietnamese nonprofit Green Innovation and Development Centre, recently won the 2018 Goldman Environmental Prize for her work convincing state agencies to increase their use of renewable energy. Her efforts were instrumental in halting the construction of two hydropower plants in a national park and securing a 20,000 MW reduction in planned coal expansion.

Government leaders have also demonstrated a desire to utilise Vietnam’s abundant sunlight and over 2,026 miles of coastline in the pursuit of renewable energy.

4 solutions for a sustainable energy sector

Clearly, clean energy opportunities are available, the question is how to encourage more investment. Obstacles persist with the regulatory environment, preventing the country from tapping its potential in this area. Here are four small changes which could bridge the gap between policy and implementation, ensuring the green energy dream becomes a reality:

  1. Streamline regulations regarding Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) and support the use of Direct Power Purchase Agreements (DPPA).

Negotiating standard PPAs with EVN, the sole power purchaser, is time-consuming, which cause rising total project costs. The streamlining of such deals would render them more attractive to power producers and cut lengthy approval time, which often leads to execution delays or complete abandonment of projects.

USAID and Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade are working together to enable private sector electricity buyers and renewable energy providers to enter into DPPA. This would allow industrial energy buyers to purchase electricity directly from independent renewable energy producers.

Such a mechanism would help companies enjoy constant power prices and ultimately save power costs. By signing a long-term DPPA to buy power from a clean energy generator, businesses can have a constant power price, reducing risk and helping firms establish long-term business plans with no surprises down the road.

  1. Improve the transparency of electricity rate forecasting.

Electricity prices will have to increase in order for Vietnam’s national utility to finance new energy projects, but the schedule for such increases remains vague. Better transparency of expected price increases will allow buyers and investors to more accurately value fixed-cost renewable energy contracts, which can offer some price protection.

Additionally, improving the quality and sourcing of data on renewable energy can help clarify for investors available locations, infrastructure capabilities and government targets, as well as other information to help reduce risk on investment decisions.

  1. Encourage supporting industries.

Supporting industries plays a crucial role in the development and adoption of renewable energy technologies. The government should promote domestic SMEs through capital subsidy and incentives such as tax breaks and preferential loans. A competitive supporting industry will help in reducing the tariff and investment costs for renewable projects, nurturing their development as part of Vietnam’s energy sector.

  1. Develop a renewable energy model for industrial parks.

Given the expectation that industrial areas will continue to play a big role in Vietnamese manufacturing and commerce, these parks are an important place to explore renewable solutions. Aggregating demand from tenants in the parks would help scale clean energy and make it more affordable for all.

Green power pioneer

Renewable energy has the capacity to power Vietnam and with the right policies in place, the country can deliver affordable, safe and clean power for continued economic growth.

Vietnamese businesses and the government could chart an unprecedented course for clean energy, and represent a role model for Southeast Asia — if they can address some key barriers. The changes detailed above would help drive the country’s energy transition toward a sustainable, greener future, and demonstrate that the fight against climate change can continue without American leadership.

For more information about Vietnam’s renewable energy sector, please contact Giles at GTCooper@duanemorris.com or any of the lawyers in our office listing. Giles is co-General Director of Duane Morris Vietnam LLC and branch director of Duane Morris’ HCMC office.

Are green bonds the answer to Vietnam’s infrastructure dilemma?

For many countries across Southeast Asia, including Vietnam, the rapid pace of growth has meant that finding stable sources of funding can be a struggle.

 

This is particularly true in the case of infrastructure. According to a report by the Asian Development Bank the region will need up to US$2.8 trillion worth of roads, bridges and railways by 2030 to keep up with economic growth.

 

Faced with an increasingly unstable political climate, Southeast Asian nations are looking at safer options to fund their infrastructure developments over the coming years. Over-reliance on China, which has already backed nearly US$1 trillion worth of projects under its ‘Belt and Road’ initiative, will likely be scaled back as economies turn to domestic solutions. Fears of China’s plan overstepping its stated bounds have caused countries around the region to rethink their embrace of the ‘belts and roads’, with instances of financial misuse and failed projects serving as cautionary tales.

 

Political tensions over territorial claims in the South China Sea and increasing international protectionism are also causing countries like Vietnam to seek self-sufficiency in future financing. State budgets across the region are coming under growing strain, so leaders are looking elsewhere to fund much-needed development over the coming years. One proposition is to promote the issuance of ‘green bonds’.

 

What you need to know about ‘green bonds’

 

A green bond is like any other bond, however the funds raised by the issuer are earmarked for ‘green’ projects, or in other words, those that are environmentally-friendly and take climate concerns into account. Particular sectors that stand to benefit most from the issuance of green bonds are renewable energy, infrastructure and construction.

 

Building roads, bridges, tunnels and tracks takes a huge toll on the climate, both locally and nationally, thus projects which seek to lessen their environmental footprint are a top priority.

 

On top of concentrating funding towards environmentally-friendly projects, green bonds also highlight the issuer’s commitment to sustainable development. Additionally, they provide issuers access to a specific set of global investors who invest only in green ventures. With the increasing focus of foreign players towards green investments, it could also help in reducing the cost of capital.

 

What does this mean for Vietnam?

 

According to German development agency GIZ, Vietnam will need roughly $30.7 billion by 2020 to move its current carbon-dependent development onto a more sustainable path, and towards its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INC).

 

Some 30 percent of the credit for green growth is expected to come from the state budget, consisting of central and provincial funds as well as official development assistance (ODA), whilst the remainder will be sourced from the private sector.

 

Under the Vietnam Green Growth Strategy (VGGS), approved by the government for the 2011-2020 period, the capital market will be key in achieving the country’s targets. It is here that green bonds will be vital – raising funds specifically for green projects and enterprises, creating a platform for green products’ derivatives trading, as well as tapping into private sector investment for sustainable development.

 

In terms of foreign interest, Vietnam’s issuance of green bonds is hoped to attract international investors with an orientation towards sustainable development, renewable energy and environmentally-friendly growth. Investors around the world are increasingly attuned to the challenges of climate change and the energy transition. More and more of them are clamoring for investment tools that take environmental issues into account, especially in the developing world.

 

Vietnam is not the only country in the region to see the promise of sustainable funding. With the ASEAN Green Bond Standards (AGBS) developed and launched in November 2017, common standards were laid down for the issuance of ASEAN green bonds. The AGBS label is to be used only for issuers and projects in the region and specifically excludes fossil fuel-related projects. Companies in Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia have already issued bonds labelled as ASEAN Green Bonds.

 

Funds raised from these green bond issuances will be allocated to projects such as renewable energy, waste management, green buildings and infrastructure, which meet sustainability criteria and contribute to the common goals of integration, connectivity and overall ASEAN growth. Primarily, regional leaders are realising that growth cannot come at the expense of future generations. Initiatives like the AGBS will help in the allocation of resources towards climate friendly investments.

 

Stunted green growth

 

One of the milestones to be achieved by 2020 is to expand the green bond market to at least 1 percent of the global bond market, currently about US$90 trillion. For this to happen, sovereign issuers must be completely on board.

 

Asia’s local currency green bond market is still characterised by a lack of liquidity, limited diversification of bond structures, and the absence of a large regular stream of bankable projects.

 

Additionally, consistent demand from socially responsible investors is still limited, hampering the market’s growth potential.

 

There is, however, a lot of potential for growth in the local currency green bond market, as long as sovereign issuers establish an enabling environment and a strong framework is applied. The key constraint will be the number and size of bankable green investments.

 

If Vietnam fully embraces the ‘green bond’ movement, an injection of funds in this manner could prove a panacea – patching up the infrastructure funding gap, laying the foundations for more rapid expansion and ensuring the long-suffering climate gets a breather.

 

For more information about Vietnam’s green bonds, please contact Giles at GTCooper@duanemorris.com or any of the lawyers in our office listing. Giles is co-General Director of Duane Morris Vietnam LLC and branch director of Duane Morris’ HCMC office.

Land speculation clouds Vietnam’s renewable energy projects

Vietnam’s southern province of Ninh Thuan continues to see growth in its renewable energy resources, with Spain’s Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy (SGRE) winning in its bid for the second phase of the existing 39MW Dam Nai wind farm.

 

According to the plan, the company will supply 12 turbines by October this year. SGRE will also handle the management and maintenance of the facility over the course of the next ten years for Dam Nai’s operator, independent power producer Blue Circle.

 

The first phase of the Dam Nai wind farm kicked off in April last year, with total investment capital of US$15 million. During the first phase SGRE installed three turbines, which are already operational. Siemens Gamesa has said it expects “significant growth” in Vietnam over the coming years as the country “begins to utilise some of the best wind resources in Southeast Asia.”

 

As of April 2018, the country had 197MW of installed wind power capacity, split between 98MW onshore and 99MW offshore.

 

On top of turbines, the province of Ninh Thuan has also been targeted by firms for solar power development, thanks to its status as one of the driest areas of the country. A number of companies have already signed up to develop projects in the province. However, despite excellent solar conditions, a growing economy and a strong manufacturing base, Vietnam’s solar ambitions have been relatively modest compared to its near-neighbors in the region.

 

Not all blue skies

 

Vietnam is among the most promising renewable energy markets in Southeast Asia, offering significant opportunities for investment in clean energy, especially wind and solar power. With a population touching 92 million and energy demand forecast to grow by 13 percent annually over the next four years, the country is eyeing an energy policy that includes a substantial mix of renewables.

 

According to the government’s revised Power Development Master Plan VII, Vietnam needs investment in the power sector amounting to US$150 billion for the period up to 2030 in order to keep pace with the nation’s projected annual growth of 10-12 percent. The renewable energy sector is considered a priority for investment with contributions set at 7 percent by 2020 and 10 percent by 2030.

 

A large number of firms have already been lured to take advantage of the market’s huge potential. A recent report by USAID (United States Agency for International Development) found that in the solar power sector, as of 2017, more than 100 new projects had been planned, including 70 in the province of Binh Thuan.

 

There are, however, issues hindering the sustainable development of the sector. These include poor administration and low transparency, leading to corruption among investors and officials. The major risks are related to programming and licensing of investors and access to land. The rosy picture of deals hides a more problematic truth.

 

Many investors registering projects don’t intend to join the market immediately, but instead are snapping up advantageous plots of land. For wind and solar power projects in particular, location is everything. Areas with strong and consistent natural wind or intense sunshine will inevitably bring better returns for firms who set up shop with their panels or turbines.

 

One expert said that nearly all land plots in advantageous positions are now occupied, though the renewable power plants remain on paper, and may never be developed. This speculation over land poses a risk of harming the market, and slowing the much-needed transformation of Vietnam’s energy sector.

 

As the top spots get booked up, real investors will have to stump up a premium for their projects, or shell out fees for intermediaries. Transparency in development programming, licensing procedures and project execution supervision is a must for the market to run effectively.

 

Coupled with relatively low feed-in tariffs (FiT) and arduous legislative hurdles to overcome, the added headache of a premium on land may cause investors to look elsewhere when considering locations for their renewable power projects.

 

A recent StoxPlus report has identified 245 renewable energy projects currently in Vietnam, including wind and solar power as well as biomass, which are being deployed at different stages. Obviously, if all planned projects begin operation the country’s targets would be met overnight. However, of the total projects, only 19 percent have reached the construction phase and 8 percent have begun operation. Most projects are still in the preparatory stages.

 

Investors are also struggling with a lack of clear information about the market. Even though information about renewable energy projects in Vietnam has been floating around, there is no clear details on the number of projects or their development status, creating confusion and uncertainty among developers and other stakeholders.

 

Joint ventures between foreign and domestic enterprises may help to address some of these bottlenecks – with local firms providing some much-needed information and international players adding the technical know-how that is lacking from the domestic market. This is, unfortunately, only a partial solution. In the long term, a stronger legislative framework will be needed to support to sustainable development of the renewable power sector in Vietnam, and help the country to meet its targets and support its booming energy needs.

 

For more information about Vietnam’s renewable energy sector, please contact Giles at GTCooper@duanemorris.com or any of the lawyers in our office listing. Giles is co-General Director of Duane Morris Vietnam LLC and branch director of Duane Morris’ HCMC office.

Hanoi has long road ahead to become a ‘smart city’

Wirelessly managing streetlights to cut the cost of energy. Sensors providing real-time alerts on water leaks and air pollution. Intelligent management of public transport and road networks to avoid congestion. These are just some of the benefits a ‘smart city’ could provide, and if authorities and investors succeed, these advancements could be coming to Hanoi in the near future.

 

Plans are already in place to turn Vietnam’s capital into a smart city by 2030, with priority areas identified as health, education, transport and tourism. Taken together, the application of technology in these areas will bring significant improvements to residents’ quality of life and boost the city’s tourism potential.

 

Hanoi has already applied smart systems to monitor car parking in some districts, and an anticipated roll-out of this technology across the whole city aims to provide information on traffic status and better manage public passenger transport.

 

Similar implementations are planned for other sectors. With input and investment from major foreign players, the city sees the deployment of modern IT infrastructure utilising the Internet of Things (IoT). Citizens will be connected to their homes and primary services, as well as traffic infrastructure and vital information about their environment. For this to happen successfully, work is needed to set up modern infrastructure in transport, healthcare and education.

 

In order for these systems to be implemented and managed effectively, foreign know-how will be needed.

 

Intelligent implementation

 

According to local authorities, the process of transforming Hanoi into a smart city will take place over three phases. The first, from 2016 to 2020, will consist of building the foundations and infrastructure needed, as well as implementing smart applications in traffic, tourism, environmental management and security.

 

The second phase, from 2020 to 2025, smart city solutions will be put into operation and a digital economy will be formed. In the third phase, from 2025 to 2030, the different parts of the project will be connected and Hanoi will become a functioning smart city.

 

The capital city is not alone. According to the Ministry of Information and Communications, the government has set a target of creating five smart cities by 2020, and is designing

criteria for such projects, making it more convenient for foreign investors to jump in.

 

The southern hub, Ho Chi Minh City, has its own plans to get ‘smart’ in the near future. Tran Vinh Tuyen, deputy chairman of the city People’s Committee and head of the smart city management board plans “a comfortable, positive, healthy and safe living environment with convenient public transportation, good healthcare, less crime and clean water and environment.”

 

In addition to these benefits, smart cities will bring sustainable economic growth, and help develop a digital, knowledge-based economy. Such moves are sure to generate interest and attract investment.

 

Not all plain sailing

 

Domestic firms like Viettel, VNPT, FPT, and CMC are keen to get involved with the development of smart cities in Vietnam. Various countries with experience in smart cities have also expressed a desire to cooperate with Hanoi in this endeavour. In particular, leaders from Singapore have shown a willingness to partner with Vietnam on hi-tech parks and software industrial zones, as well as working together on the smart city project. In addition to funding, Singapore is ready to provide training and support to implement and manage smart city technology and software.

 

With Vietnam continuing to grow rapidly, concerns over rising energy demands are high on the agenda. As a key component of a smart city, a greater focus will be needed on green and sustainable energy if the country is to successfully fuel onward growth.

 

There is clearly a lot of potential in this sector, however, energy is just one challenge standing in the way. Specifically, Hanoi faces problems in ICT infrastructure, traffic congestion, water shortages, wastewater treatment and increasing environmental pollution. A dearth of qualified human resources will also present difficulties in implementing some of the proposed solutions.

 

However, for many sites, construction has yet to begin. A lack of clear regulations is proving to be a major roadblock for the development of smart cities, with the implementation of a US$37.3 billion smart city in Hanoi’s Dong Anh district struggling to get off the ground. More than 20 large Japanese firms, including Sumitomo, Mitsubishi, Panasonic and Tokyo Metro have signed up to provide various services but are yet to begin work.

 

The 310 hectare project will be designed by Nikken Sekkei Group and is expected to be completed in 2023, if they get the green light.

 

In this case it is authorities lagging behind in the provision of clear criteria. The novelty of such projects is one issue, with city leaders unsure on how these new developments will fit into existing city-planning norms.

 

If the target of five smart cities by 2020 is to be met, the government will need to come up with some clear and detailed legislation soon, so that both investors and authorities are happy with the planned projects. Of course, updating regulations in Vietnam can prove to be a drawn-out affair and investors may be waiting some time before ground is broken on the cities of the future.

 

For more information about investment in Vietnam, please contact Giles at GTCooper@duanemorris.com or any of the lawyers in our office listing. Giles is co-General Director of Duane Morris Vietnam LLC and branch director of Duane Morris’ HCMC office.

Vietnam steps up sale of SOEs

Hopes abound that a new Decree will drag the near-moribund process of privatising large State-owned enterprises (SOEs) into a new and more efficient phase.

 

Over the past 30 years, the restructuring of SOEs has been a key component of Vietnam’s economic reforms under Doi Moi (renovation). The process has been undertaken by successive governments and is a central pillar to creating the business-friendly climate desired by the current leadership.

 

Nevertheless, it remains largely a work in progress. According to a report by the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM), since 1992, Vietnam has ‘equitised’ over 4,500 enterprises (‘privatized’ being considered an unsuitable term for Vietnam and not always accurate anyway given the propensity for the State to maintain controlling stakes).  The fact is that many of these took place in a short period of time and were smaller production units of large conglomerate-type corporations.  The CIEM report concluded that progress is below expectations. SOEs have struggled to attract strategic investors and sale of shares has not reduced the level of State budget in SOEs’ charter capital, as was hoped.

 

There are multiple reasons for the disappointing progress including restrictions on foreign ownership, and the State’s desire to maintain ultimate management control.  Opaque valuations and concerns over transparency also deter strategic and other investors from getting involved in the process and ultimately slow it down.

 

To continue growing, Vietnam is under increasing pressure to reform the equitisation process for its SOEs, with new efforts being made to accelerate the government’s divestment. Under plans announced earlier this year, the government will equitise a further 137 SOEs in the 2016-2020 period.  Many of those slated are large and some can be considered the cream of the crop.

 

This renewed motivation is driven in large part by the government’s need to mobilise financial resources to deal with a rising fiscal deficit and public debt. The country’s obligations under a number of free trade agreements also provide impetus to break up the big entities.

 

Determining demand

 

Recently, a significant change was announced in a bid to speed up equitisation of SOEs: the law will change to allow book building as a means of determining interest and price for IPOs of SOEs.

 

Up until now, the equitisation of Vietnam’s SOEs has been handled through public auction, direct negotiation and underwriting. Most have adopted the public auction method, but this has proved unattractive to investors, with even big assets like Vinamilk failing to generate the expected interest.

 

Under new Decree 126/2017/ND-CP, the Prime Minister has instructed the Ministry of Finance to prepare detailed guidelines on implementation of book building to facilitate efficient IPOs as part of the equitisation process.

 

This method of price discovery, used widely internationally and now approved for the first time in Vietnam in connection with equitisation purposes, is expected to make the process more efficient and attractive to strategic investors.  Decree 126 also eases restrictions on the profitability of strategic partners (from three to two years), cuts the lock-in period (from five to three years) and provides more detailed guidance on valuations of SOEs generally (notably removing reference to DCF valuation and providing more clarity around valuation of land use rights and goodwill).

 

It is hoped that this move, to take effect from 1 January 2018, will enhance transparency in SOE equitisation and hasten the hitherto slow listing on the country’s stock exchanges. The Decree will have a particular impact on the next wave of SOE IPOs, slated for 2018-19.

 

Energy giants next?

 

An area in dire need of extensive equitisation is the energy sector. In order to ease electricity shortages, attract more investment and boost economic growth the country will need to tackle inefficient State-owned power actors.

 

The issue of power shortages could come to a head in the next four years, with forecasts predicting that annual growth in electricity consumption will start to match, and possibly outpace, the installed capacity growth. If consumption continues to expand at a similar rate to the last decade (an average of 12 percent a year) the country could soon be facing a power crisis.

 

This gloomy scenario is looking increasingly likely, considering that foreign direct investment (FDI) into the manufacturing sector, which accounts for 50 percent of total electricity consumption, has doubled over the past four years to reach US$63.1 billion. Luckily for businesses, the government is keen on keeping this development trend going, and having the electricity to power it.

 

Recent reports in the media state that the government has lined up a series of sizable IPOs of major power corporations, including PV Power, EVN Generation Corporation Number 3 (Genco 3) and Binh Son Refining and Petrochemical Company Limited (BSR). If the above projections on power demand growth are anything to go by, Vietnam’s power sector holds significant potential, and may prove an irresistible offer to foreign firms. This offer, however, is contingent on the government breaking up the energy giants and levelling the playing field for investors. Official approval of the book building method for pricing IPOs is a start.

 

PV Power, the country’s second-largest electricity producer, plans to auction a 20 percent stake through its IPO scheduled for the end of this year, and 28.8 percent of shares will be sold to strategic investors. Meanwhile, the equitisation of Genco 3 is awaiting the government’s go-ahead.

 

The changes above demonstrate a willingness to step up the equitisation of SOEs, with looming budget considerations providing a timely incentive. Beginning next year, the slow process may finally gather some much needed pace and see involvement of foreign players previously put off by the state of play.

 

For more information about Vietnam’s equitisation and IPO processes, please contact Giles at GTCooper@duanemorris.com or any of the lawyers in our office listing. Giles is co-General Director of Duane Morris Vietnam LLC and branch director of Duane Morris’ HCMC office.

Vietnam’s waste-to-energy projects should be low hanging fruit

While alchemists of years past failed to turn lead into gold, technology today can turn waste into energy, and more efficiently than ever before, proving there is not only money to be made from rubbish, but also neat solutions to perennial problems.

Vietnam has long struggled with issues of waste management, with a recent study estimating that Ho Chi Minh City alone discharges 8,300 tonnes of waste each day. At the same time, power shortages and outages remain a part of daily life in parts of the city.

The country’s most popular method of solid waste treatment is still burial, with up to 76 per cent of trash ending up in landfills. Dump sites are prevalent thanks to their relatively low cost, little initial investment and ability to handle most types of solid refuse. However, the increasing amount of waste, lax management and disregard for technical protocols are rapidly making this method unsustainable. A number of environmental incidents have also raised the alarm over the pollution and contamination caused by this method of waste management.

Rapid urbanisation is partly behind the vertiginous increase in waste ­– rising urban populations are creating serious waste management problems for cities all over the world. In Vietnam in particular, with economic growth, urban residents are enjoying rising wages and living standards, in turn producing more waste.

Rising populations are also putting the strain on the country’s power-generation capabilities – a problem that will require significant investment over the coming years.

 Waste not, want not

A number of companies are working in Vietnam’s clean energy space, and while headlines are usually dominated by wind and solar power projects, the waste-to-energy sector has been enjoying some development too. The idea of converting Vietnam’s growing waste problem into a solution for its shortage of power could kill two birds with one stone.

The capital city of Hanoi inaugurated its first industrial waste-to-energy facility in April this year, supplying electricity to the national grid. With a waste treatment capacity of 75 tonnes per day and a power generation capability of 1.93MW, the facility is a pioneering project in Vietnam’s industrial waste treatment industry.

Almost all of the factory’s equipment was supplied by the Hitachi Zosen Company of Japan. With total investment capital of US$29 million, including more than US$22.5 million of non-refundable aid from Japan’s New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organisation (NEDO) and the remainder extracted from the city’s budget.

With advanced technology from Japan, the factory demonstrates the potential in this area of clean energy and its attraction to foreign investors. If all goes well, the company has plans for another plant in the capital city and more across the country.

Australia’s Trisun Energy is another firm showing interest in this field, having set a major investment target of building up to 20 power-generating waste treatment plants in Vietnam over the next 5 to 10 years. The company, founded in 2011, is currently completing a comprehensive study of a waste-to-power plant in Ho Chi Minh City. According to Trisun, the plant will be capable of burning up to 3,000 tonnes of garbage per day, or more than 40 per cent of the city’s waste.

In addition to Japan and Australia, some leading Finnish companies are at the forefront of addressing the issues of waste and energy.

A delegation of 16 Finnish exhibitors set out some of their plans at the Vietwater 2017 expo, which recently concluded in Ho Chi Minh City. These include solutions for contaminated landfill sites and waste-to-energy projects; the development of biogas technology; and the generation of electricity from biomass and waste.

Doranova is one such firm. Since early January 2017, Doranova has been constructing a landfill gas plant in Binh Duong, north of Ho Chi Minh City. The plant will extract harmful methane emissions from a nearby landfill, generating electricity while reducing environmental pollution. According to the company, the plant will provide additional power generation options from waste materials for residents and businesses in the city.

 Not a wasted opportunity

These projects in Vietnam’s biggest cities represent small steps towards solving the country’s waste epidemic. They also help to diversify the national energy mix, which is crucial in ensuring the supply of energy meets the expected rise in consumption.

The increased focus on the clean-technology sector and particularly energy efficiency, renewable energy technologies and waste management provides business opportunities for international players who have the knowledge, expertise and technology needed in this field. The question is whether Vietnam will take full advantage of the opportunity.

Though a promising start has been made, the widespread implementation of waste-to-energy facilities will require a more concerted effort from authorities. The country’s Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MoNRE) has set ambitious targets for the collection, reduction, reuse and recycling of waste nationwide. By 2020, 90% of urban domestic solid waste is to be collected and treated, with 85% recycled and reused.

Indeed, Hitachi Zosen Company (behind Hanoi’s waste-to-energy plant) has expressed concerns over the incentives and investment conditions provided by the Vietnamese government. The company, as well as a number of Japanese investors, are keen on rolling out the waste-to-energy model across the country. However, a lack of favourable investment conditions for foreign investors is holding back the industry. At present, investors are waiting for Vietnam to enact new public-private partnership regulations, before deciding on next-step investments.

The waste-to-energy sector in Vietnam holds a lot of potential, and technological advances mean that win-win solutions to both an abundance of waste and shortage of power are more affordable than ever. Combined with efforts in other areas of renewable energy, and the entry of international players, significant progress can be made in green power generation. As ever, the amount of progress depends on the attractive policies set out by the government. Investors are ready, and Vietnam would be wise not to let the opportunity go to waste.

For more information about Vietnam’s energy sector, please contact Giles at GTCooper@duanemorris.com or any of the lawyers in our office listing. Giles is co-General Director of Duane Morris Vietnam LLC and branch director of Duane Morris’ HCMC office.

Public debt puts the squeeze on government guarantees, stifling project finance projects in Vietnam

Vietnam’s economic success story is evident in the rapid development of its big cities. However, while the country’s growth has outpaced its neighbours, so has its debt; a factor that threatens to de-rail growth.  Not least of all because of the impact on the government’s ability to give guarantees to underpin privately-financed infrastructure.

 

Over recent decades, the government has spent significantly. Priority has been given to roads, export zones and other critical infrastructure. This is evident across the country, where highways, tunnels, factories, airports and metro systems are being expanded, or built from scratch, at an incredible pace.

 

The biggest macroeconomic challenge facing Vietnam today is sustaining that growth. The government needs to be more rigorous about how it spends money, leveraging it better to attract and benefit from private funds rather than prop up State-owned entities.  The looming spectre of public debt will need to be tackled before the country finds itself in a precarious position.

 

Vietnam’s total public debt as of mid-July 2017 reportedly stood at US$94.6 billion, or about US$1,038 per capita. In fuelling the country’s celebrated growth, public debt has increased consistently, from 36% of GDP in 2001 to about 62.4% in 2016. According to an IMF forecast, it will hit 63.3% and 64.3% in 2017 and 2018, respectively, while the self-imposed public debt ceiling is set by the government at 65% of GDP for 2020.

 

Vietnam’s public debt compares unfavourably with the rest of the region, with Thailand coming in at 41 percent of GDP and Malaysia at 56 percent, according to the World Bank.

 

The annual growth of public debt during 2011-15 was 18.4 per cent, triple the annual GDP growth rate, which averaged about 5.9 per cent over the period.

 

A squeeze on guarantees

 

In an effort to tackle the ballooning public debt, the Ministry of Finance (MoF) announced changes to regulations on Government guarantees earlier this year. The adjustment is one of the regulations stated in the Government’s Decree 04/2017/ND-CP (Decree 04), superseding Decree 15/2011/ND-CP (Decree 15), issued on February 16, 2011.

 

Taking effect from March 1, the maximum level of Government guarantees for a programme or project was reduced from the previous level of 80 percent. Decree 04 replaces this with a three-tiered cap on the amount of guaranteed debt as a percentage of the investment capital depending on the size or importance of the project, each lower than the cap established in Decree 15.  In all cases this is far lower than the golden days of Vietnam’s early privately financed infrastructure projects like the Phu My 3 and Phu My 2.2 power projects which both enjoyed near total guarantees.

 

The current highest level of guarantee, set at 70 percent, applies to projects that must be implemented on an urgent basis, and have been approved by the National Assembly or the Prime Minister. Secondly, for projects whose total investment is at least VND2.3 trillion (US$102 million) and have been approved by the Prime Minister, the maximum proportion guaranteed by the Government is 60 percent. A cap of 50 percent will be applied to other projects.

 

In continuing to restructure of the country’s public debt with more stringent monitoring of projects, the decree aims at tightening the provision of Government guarantees and enhancing the management of public debt.

 

However, at a time when Vietnam needs to develop much infrastructure, notably in the energy sector, and requires substantial foreign investment to do so, Decree 04 makes it more difficult for private investors to obtain MoF Guarantees for projects.

 

Ticking debt time bomb

 

Taking the energy sector as an example, questions remain over EVN’s economic health. Tariffs on electricity have long been maintained at below cost levels. The policy of low subsidised tariffs to maintain the competitiveness of domestic industry and keep consumers happy is putting pressure on the government and EVN’s balance sheet.

 

The average retail electricity tariff stood at just above US$0.08/KWh as of 2016, the lowest in Southeast Asia, and only just above EVN’s average generation cost of US$0.075/KWh (excluding transmission and distribution costs). This has depressed sector cash flow and contributed to EVN’s rising debt.

 

This has raised concerns among private sector investors over EVN’s ability to pay for electricity generated as the single buyer, while the current low retail tariffs mean that investors are not confident of negotiating adequate prices for generation projects.

 

With the situation likely to continue, EVN’s financial position will surely deteriorate, leaving it with unsustainable debt and unable to finance capital expenditure. This would force private sector investors to seek increased government guarantees. Unfortunately, as mentioned above, the government is looking to rein in such largesse. As Vietnam’s economy grows, the previously abundant soft loans and ODA are beginning to dry up, meaning that the sources of support for private finance are becoming harder to find.

 

In order to reduce risk, the developers of major infrastructure projects may need to seek out private insurance groups or institutions like the World Bank’s Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA). However, these options obviously don’t come without their own costs. Investors, and ultimately end consumers, will have to take the hit.

 

Much of Vietnam’s current fiscal position can be blamed on poor management. The state-owned giants that have lost their repayment ability on Government-guaranteed loans are passing on the burden to the Government.

 

The sluggish privatisation of State-owned enterprises means that inefficiency will continue. The sooner this process is completed, the better for the economy as a whole. Measures like reducing government guarantees may be prudent, but if Vietnam wants to maintain its economic momentum serious action is needed to first untangle the mess of intra-State bad debt.

 

For more information about project finance matters please contact Giles at GTCooper@duanemorris.com or any of the lawyers in our office listing. Giles is co-General Director of Duane Morris Vietnam LLC and branch director of Duane Morris’ HCMC office.

Vietnam plays a calculated game of risk with new solar PPA

Vietnam appears to be betting on gung ho enthusiasm to kick start solar power development rather than taking bold steps to deliver a stable backbone to the industry.  It’s a gamble that may pay off in the short term but might also saddle the country with poorly-conceived and under-performing projects in the long term.

 

To much fanfare, Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT) released Circular 16 in including final template power purchase agreements (PPA) for the solar energy sector. The circular and PPA templates follow a draft issued back in April this year, and are stated to be mandatory templates for utility-scale and rooftop solar projects.

 

The original draft PPA for utility scale grid projects was met with criticism, and declared non-bankable by most experts and commentators (despite hewing closely to the previously-issued standard PPA for wind projects). Unfortunately, little has changed with the final version of the PPA.  Would-be investors raised serious concerns over the amount and type of risk the PPA sought to shift to investors, and the message delivered was that unless the government was willing to address some of the most glaring problems, few reputable foreign solar players and, just as importantly, few reputable financiers would be likely to sign up.

 

Having largely ignored recommendations provided, the final text does little to inspire confidence. The final PPA does not improve upon the main critical issues highlighted in April.  Issues include a lack of measures to compensate producers for interruption in the ability to receive power, force majeure conditions, contract suspension, and settlement of disputes.

 

Tariff trouble

 

With the FiT rate of US$0.0935/kWh for grid-connected solar power projects confirmed, Circular 16 goes on to outline that the FiT is available for 20 years to projects, or parts of projects, that reach commercial operation before 30 June 2019.

 

As with the draft from April, the final PPA does not include any indexation of the FiT to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to address inflation risks. In response to concerns over fluctuating exchange rates, the circular does state that “the FiT for the following year shall be adjusted according to the central exchange rates of the Vietnamese dong against the US dollar announced by the State Bank of Vietnam on the last working day of the preceding year.”  Annual adjustment is better than none but it wouldn’t have been difficult to spread adjustments throughout the year.

 

As a way to offset the relatively low tariff, and inflation risks, investors may be able to benefit from tax exemptions on raw materials and supplies imported for their projects, corporate income tax relief, and an exemption from land rental fees within the first three years of commencing commercial operation.

 

A risk too far?

 

Under Decision 11 (which also set the FiT) and the final version of the PPA appended to Circular 16, Electricity of Vietnam (EVN) is responsible for purchasing the entire power output from grid-connected projects at the stated FiT.

 

However, the PPA relieves EVN from payment obligations in cases where it is unable to take power due to a breakdown of the transmission or distribution grid. With many solar projects currently focused on few central locations, the capacity of existing facilities to absorb power must be a cause of some concern given the PPA’s transfer of such risk to power producers.

 

Worryingly, the PPA lacks any mechanism to compensate power producers should interruptions happen outside of their control. Not only does the PPA not provide for extension of time in case of force majeure, but if force majeure were to prevent a power producer from meeting its obligations for a year then EVN could unilaterally terminate the PPA with no compensation payable.  In such circumstances, the power producer is left alone in the dark.

 

Such arrangements might be acceptable to projects that manage to negotiate clear ‘take or pay’ terms and/or government guarantees, but it is highly questionable whether and to what extent either of these will be possible in the current climate.  As a direct consequence, it is equally questionable to what extent private finance will be prepared to bear the risk, a fact that will prompt capital to seek more favourable conditions in other markets.

 

Playing by house rules

 

If the above portends of problems in the relationship with EVN, investors may be further discouraged by the lack of specifics in terms of dispute resolution. The PPA is governed by Vietnamese law and does not itself expressly include the right to agree on international arbitration to resolve disputes, a condition that would typically be considered an important requirement.

 

As it stands, disputes can be submitted to the Electricity Renewable Energy Department (formerly the General Directorate of Energy) for mediation. If that doesn’t work, there is the option of escalating the issue to the Electricity Regulatory Authority of Vietnam (ERAV) or pursuing litigation in Vietnam’s courts.

 

The PPA does allow for “another dispute resolution body to be agreed by the parties”, which potentially opens the door for sellers to negotiate with EVN on dispute resolution, including offshore or even domestic arbitration.  But it is not clear if EVN will agree to directly amend PPAs to allow for express prior agreement on offshore arbitration or simply open the door for such a discussion at the time of a dispute.  Clearly in the latter case the deck is firmly stacked in EVN’s favour.

 

One step forward… wait and see

 

The MoIT is well aware of the deficiencies in the PPA and knows that, in its current form, it will not attract the kind of investment Vietnam needs if it is to meet both its energy demands and renewable targets. They know that investors were hoping for some of the shortfalls to have been addressed, and as such the agreement remains – for all intents and purposes – largely unbankable.

 

On the other hand however, the MoIT is also acutely aware of the significant interest in Vietnam’s solar sector. The vast potential of solar power is there for the taking, with abundant land available for the development of solar farms for first movers. With this in mind, the PPA can be considered an attempt to test the waters – asking how much risk investors are willing to bear in return for a piece of the action.

 

The MoIT is confident that smaller, nimble players will be attracted to Vietnam and make investments, regardless of the bankability of the PPA on paper. The question truly posed by Circular 16 is: exactly how much risk are investors willing to accept?  What better way to test it than in open market conditions?  If risk allocation adjustment need to be made in future, the Prime Minister, MoIT and EVN can make them relatively easily.

 

Ultimately, although the PPA is “final” on paper, the real trick is for investors to work hard and smart to agree adjustments on a project-to-project basis that re-align specific risks in acceptable ways.  Each project is a sum of many different elements and successful investors in the early days at least will be the ones that focus their energies on key issues for their projects where they can make meaningful progress.  Opportunity vs. risk: Vietnam is playing a calculated game at the dawn of the solar energy sector.  Where the chips fall remains to be seen.

 

For more information about Vietnam’s energy sector, please contact Giles at GTCooper@duanemorris.com or any of the lawyers in our office listing. Giles is co-General Director of Duane Morris Vietnam LLC and branch director of Duane Morris’ HCMC office.