Impact of the Presidential Election on the Future of Digital Assets in the United States

By Vincent J. Nolan III

During his first term in office, President Trump expressed skepticism about cryptocurrencies, saying that he was “not a fan” and that they were based on “thin air.” However, statements made during the campaign leading to his election on November 5, as well as his family’s involvement in the crypto space, indicate that the new Trump administration now holds a favorable stance toward the industry. The post-election rally in cryptocurrency markets certainly indicates that the industry believes that the incoming Trump administration will be pro-crypto.

In this post, we will explore what the future of cryptocurrency might look like under a Trump-led government, how regulatory changes could unfold, and the potential timeline for meaningful reform.

1. A Pro-Crypto Administration

Based on his campaign rhetoric and the Trump family’s increasing involvement in crypto, it appears that President Trump will be a more crypto-friendly president than his predecessor. For example, his policy proposals have included the following:

  • Aggressively encouraging Bitcoin mining by having – in his words — “all the remaining Bitcoin to be MADE IN THE USA;”
  • Creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve to eliminate the $35-plus trillion U.S. debt;
  • Preventing the creation of a central bank digital currency; and
  • Eliminating oppressive regulation in the crypto space by, in part, firing U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler “on day one.”

While not all campaign promises become reality, it is likely that the new Trump administration will take an aggressively supportive stance toward cryptocurrency.

2. The SEC Under Fire

On the campaign trail, President-elect Trump pledged to the industry that he will fire SEC Chair Gary Gensler “on day one.” We would expect that Trump will attempt to carry out this promise immediately.

Under Gensler, the SEC has classified many digital assets as securities and, as a result, brought and litigated multiple cases against major crypto exchanges, projects and developers for allegedly selling unregistered securities and other alleged violations. This has led to tension with the crypto industry, with complaints that the SEC is regulating the industry through enforcement, that the regulatory environment is not clear, and that these efforts have impeded innovation and development of the crypto economy.

Whether President Trump can actually or effectively fire Gensler immediately remains to be seen. Gensler’s term currently runs through June 5, 2026, and, having been appointed and confirmed by the Senate, he can only be fired for cause. But as p.resident in his first term, Trump demonstrated that he did not want to be bound by the niceties of the federal appointment process and would creatively work to achieve his ends.

3. Congressional Movement Towards Crypto-Friendly Legislation

The U.S. crypto industry has been pushing hard for regulatory clarity. While the executive branch can take significant steps to shape policy, legislative action will be crucial for ensuring the long-term stability and growth of the crypto industry.

During his presidential campaign, President Trump declared that he will be a pro-crypto president. But it is important to recognize that the crypto industry’s political efforts were not limited to the presidential race and, as a result, over 250 (self-proclaimed) “pro-crypto” candidates were elected to Congress.

Under a Trump-led government, we would expect to see a concerted effort from both the administration and Congress to pass legislation that recognizes cryptocurrency as a legitimate asset class and establishes clear rules for its use and taxation, building upon prior efforts such as the passage of the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act in May 2024 by the House. By highlighting the economic potential of crypto and the need for the U.S. to remain competitive in the global digital economy, the Trump administration could leverage the first truly pro-crypto Congress to pass crypto-friendly legislation that clarifies the legal framework for digital assets.

4. A 12-18 Month Timeline for Crypto Legitimization

Regardless of what happens with the SEC chair, if the Trump administration successfully drives legislative action, we could see significant changes within the next 12 to 18 months.

New legislation that brings regulatory clarity could create new opportunities in the following ways:

  • Open the door for traditional financial institutions, including banks and large investment firms, to participate more actively in the crypto space. These institutions have largely been sidelined due to regulatory uncertainty and the risk of non-compliance with existing laws. Once a clear legal framework is established, these institutions would have more incentive to offer crypto-related products and services, such as custody, trading, and even crypto-based financial products;
  • Retail investors could benefit from greater legitimacy and protections within the crypto market;
  • It could lead to a surge in retail adoption, further driving the price and mainstream acceptance of digital assets; and
  • Losses in crypto and blockchain development to Asian markets could be reversed and the U.S. could again become a haven for innovation in the crypto space.

Conclusion: Crypto’s Bright Future in a Trump Administration

In summary, a second term for Donald Trump could be a game-changer for the cryptocurrency industry in the U.S. With a pro-crypto stance, potential changes at the SEC, and the push for favorable legislation, the next 12 to 18 months could see crypto move from a fringe asset class to a mainstream financial tool. The Trump administration’s focus on deregulation and fostering innovation, combined with pressure from industry stakeholders and the broader financial sector, could help pave the way for a more robust and legitimate cryptocurrency market in the U.S.

Coinbase Effort to Dismiss SEC Suit Falls Short

A New York federal court has held that the SEC sufficiently pleaded that Coinbase—a well-known cryptocurrency exchange, broker, and clearing agency—operated as an unregistered intermediary of securities and engaged in the unregistered offer and sale of securities through its crypto staking program.  In a partial win for Coinbase (and possibly others offering wallet services), the court dismissed the SEC’s claim that Coinbase acted as an unregistered broker by offering a crypto wallet application to its customers.  The case is Sec. and Exch. Comm’n v. Coinbase, Inc., 23 Civ. 4738 (S.D.N.Y. Mar. 27, 2024).

This decision has important ramifications for all players in the crypto market, as it clears the way for the SEC to continue to act as the primary regulator of crypto in the absence of further regulatory direction from Congress and allows the SEC to continue aggressive enforcement in the crypto space.

Coinbase operates as one of the world’s largest crypto trading platforms that offers additional services that complement its crypto trading operations.  Coinbase “Prime” is a service that institutional customers can use to execute large volumes of crypto trades through both Coinbase and third-party trading platforms.  Coinbase “Wallet” is a self-custodial wallet that allows customers to store crypto assets on their own computers or mobile devices with the ability to connect to decentralized exchanges to trade these assets.  Coinbase’s staking program allows customers to earn financial rewards (usually in the form of cryptocurrency) for transferring custody of assets to Coinbase, who in turn takes a commission from the staking profits and returns the balance to the customer.

On June 6, 2023, the SEC brought a lawsuit against Coinbase under the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934.  The SEC alleged that Coinbase violated the law by acting as an unregistered securities broker, an unregistered securities exchange, and an unregistered securities clearing agency.  The SEC named a dozen popular crypto assets (including Solana and Chiliz) and argued that these assets met the legal definition of a “security” (in SEC parlance, an “investment contract”).  Thus, the SEC alleged that Coinbase violated the law by working with these assets and not registering with the SEC.  Coinbase moved to dismiss the SEC’s complaint, contending primarily that none of the crypto assets named by the SEC met the definition of an investment contract and Coinbase therefore was not subject to federal securities laws.

The decision, authored by Judge Katherine Polk Failla in the Southern District of New York, first held that the SEC was not violating regulatory and administrative law by instituting its enforcement action against Coinbase.  The court then applied the well-known Howey test for investment contracts and held that the SEC plausibly alleged that at least some of the crypto asset transactions on Coinbase’s platform (including those on its Prime service) constituted investment contracts.  After finding that the SEC plausibly alleged that Coinbase facilitated transactions in securities, the Court declined to dismiss the majority of the SEC’s claims alleging that Coinbase violated the federal securities laws. Additionally, the Court held that the SEC adequately alleged that Coinbase’s crypto staking program was an investment contract subject to federal securities law.

Notably, the court rejected Coinbase’s argument that secondary market transactions–those that involve an asset purchaser buying crypto assets from someone other than the original issuer–were excluded from the definition of investment contracts.  Coinbase relied, among other cases, on the July 2023 decision in SEC v. Ripple by another judge in the Southern District of New York, which held that Ripple’s sales of XRP (a crypto token) on secondary platforms did not constitute securities transactions (SEC v. Ripple also held that sales of XRP to institutional investors did constitute securities transactions).

Without directly contradicting the Ripple decision, Judge Failla ruled that crypto transactions on the secondary market cannot be categorically excluded from constituting investment contracts.  The Howey test makes no such distinction and Judge Failla found little logic to the attempt to draw a distinction between investors who buy directly from the issuer and those who purchase on the secondary market in reliance on “promises and offers made by issuers to the investing public.”  In her opinion, Judge Failla cited favorably to the December 2023 decision SEC v. Terraform Labs, from yet another judge of the Southern District of New York, which rejected many of the same arguments Coinbase raised regarding transactions on the secondary market.

The court did, however, dismiss the SEC’s claim that Coinbase conducted unregistered securities brokerage activity through its “Wallet” application.  The court noted that the Wallet application did not undertake routing activities traditionally carried out by securities brokers, including directing how and when to execute trades.  Indeed, the SEC’s allegations conceded that Coinbase had no control over a user’s crypto assets via the “Wallet” application.  This was ultimately fatal to the SEC’s claim because the SEC failed to adequately allege that Coinbase was acting as a broker.

The Coinbase decision provides the SEC with a win in two areas.  First, the court held that the SEC’s aggressive crypto enforcement actions did not violate federal or regulatory law, paving the way for the SEC to continue acting as the primary U.S. crypto regulator.  Second, the decision held as a matter of law that the SEC adequately alleged that Coinbase’s crypto services dealt in investment contracts.  Finally, the balance of cases within the Southern District of New York has now tipped decidedly in favor of the conclusion that, when the elements of the Howey test are met, there is little distinction to be drawn between investors who buy directly from the issuer and those who purchase on the secondary market.  While the SEC may not necessarily prevail at trial, this opens the door for further crypto enforcement actions and provides a strong basis for such actions to proceed past the pleading stage into the expensive and time-consuming process of discovery and motion practice.

Webinar: U.S. Law Enforcement Targets Growing Global Crypto Market

Duane Morris and Khaitan & Co will present a Zoom webinar, U.S. Law Enforcement Targets Growing Global Crypto Markets: The Tiger in the Grass ‒ What Every Crypto Actor Must Know Now, on Thursday, January 18, 2024, from 4:30 p.m. to 5:30 p.m. IST. (Note: For those attendees located in the U.S., the time for this webinar is Thursday, January 18, 2024, from 6:00 a.m. to 7:00 a.m. Eastern.)

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Webinar: U.S. Law Enforcement Targets Crypto in Asia: The Tiger in the Grass ‒ What Every Crypto Actor Must Know Now

Duane Morris will present U.S. Law Enforcement Targets Crypto in Asia: The Tiger in the Grass ‒ What Every Crypto Actor Must Know Now on Thursday, November 30, 2023, from 10:00 a.m. to 11:00 a.m. Singapore.

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About the Program

Crypto entrepreneurs and their financers and advisers are facing unprecedented enforcement activity from the U.S. government, including the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ). The SEC, in particular, has taken an aggressive stance in applying U.S. securities law to internationally based cryptocurrencies, and international players in the crypto market are routinely being called to defend themselves in U.S.-based investigations and U.S. courts.

In this webinar, a Duane Morris team will discuss the basis for the SEC and DOJ’s assertion of jurisdiction over international actors so that crypto players can determine whether their actions may lead to the need to comply with U.S. securities laws. The panel will also discuss the various U.S. laws that could be triggered so that foreign crypto actors become more acquainted with U.S. laws and regulations. The focus of the webinar is to educate crypto players enough so that they understand the risks.

Speakers

  • Mauro Wolfe
  • Ramiro Rodriguez

Moderator

  • Vincent Nolan

Learn more about the event and Duane Morris’ Fintech Group.

Note: For those attendees located in the U.S., the time for this webinar is Wednesday, November 29, 2023, from 10:00 p.m. to 11:00 p.m. Eastern.

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The opinions expressed on this blog are those of the author and are not to be construed as legal advice.

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