Bank of England explores impact of climate change on the UK banking sector

With climate change an increasing political and policy concern, the Bank of England (BoE) is making moves to ensure UK banks and insurers measure and understand their exposure to the risks from climate change and adjust their business models and strategies in response. On 8 June 2021, the BoE published “Climate Biennial Exploratory Scenario: Financial risks from Climate Change” (CBES), identifying climate change as a financial risk with a view to exploring its impact on the banking and insurance sectors. It is the first time an exploratory climate-related stress test of UK banks and insurers has been undertaken.

The Regulatory Agenda

In 2021, banks face a number of regulatory and supervisory deadlines. The UK Prudential Regulatory Authority has set a 2021 deadline for UK banks (and insurers) to have strategies and business models to manage climate risks. The European Central Bank will require banks at the Banking Union to undertake a self-assessment of their compliance with its guidance on climate risks in 2021 before conducting a review in 2022. In the US, the New York State Department of Financial Services has set out climate-related standards for banks under its supervision. Rating agencies are also factoring in climate change to their assessments.

In this post we will provide an overview of the CBES and its implications for banks and borrowers.

CBES

The CBES participants are made up of the largest UK banking groups, building societies and insurers. Participants have until October 2021 to make initial submissions, with the results expected to be published in May 2022. The results will be published on a combined basis to reflect systemic risk.

The CBES is intended to be a learning exercise for both the BoE and participants in measuring climate risks based on different policy pathways that could be taken by the government to achieve its aim of net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. The CBES states the exercise will not be used to set capital requirements, however it may inform future policy.

The three stated aims of the CBES are:

  1. measure the financial exposures of participants to climate-related risks;
  2. understand the challenges to participants’ business models from climate-related risks and the implications; and
  3. assist participants in improving management of climate-related risks.

The CBES asks participants to look at three climate scenarios – early policy action (with transition beginning in 2021), late policy action (where transition begins in 2031) and no additional policy action. Each scenario has different outcomes in terms of global temperatures and the economy over the period 2021-2050, a significantly longer time period than the traditional planning period for financial institutions. Participants will measure the impact of the three different scenarios on their year-end 2020 balance sheets.

Within each scenario, two key risks from climate change are identified. “Transition risks” are risks that arise as the economy moves to net zero emissions, such as carbon taxes and changes in technology, regulation and policy that could create credit exposures for banks and other lenders. UK financial institutions are exposed to a wide range of sectors worldwide, many of which will be affected by climate change and the transition to net zero. In addition, reputational risk could arise from shifting attitudes of customers and other stakeholders towards the UK banks response to climate change.

“Physical risks” are the risks that are likely to occur as a result of climate change if no further policy action is taken by the government, such as extreme weather events and rising sea levels. Physical risks could result in large financial losses, reducing asset values and the value of investments held by banks. Extreme weather events are likely to impact businesses, affecting their ability to repay loans and damaging the value of assets.

Opportunities

There are a range of opportunities that banks, borrowers and other lenders are considering, particularly in the green finance space that we have previously covered in posts here and here. It is likely that banks and borrowers will take advantage of the opportunities which arise in the transition to a greener and more sustainable economy, as illustrated by the inflows to green investment products and the growth in the green and sustainability-linked bond and loan markets. With banks looking at how their business models will be impacted by various climate change policies, borrowers will also need to consider how their business practices may need to change in light of the changes to the financing options that might be available.

If you have any questions about this post, please contact Drew D. Salvest, Natalie A. Stewart, Rebecca Green any of the attorneys in our Banking and Finance Industry Group or the attorney in the firm with whom you in regular contact.

Duane Morris has an active ESG and Sustainability Team to help organizations and individuals plan, respond to, and execute on Sustainability and ESG planning and initiatives within their own space. We would be happy to discussion your proposed project with you. For more information, please contact Brad A. Molotsky, David Amerikaner, Nanette Heide, Darrick Mix, Vijay Bange, Steve Nichol, or the attorney in the firm with whom you are regularly in contact.