The Power Development Plan VIII (PDP8) has finally been approved on 15 May 2023 by Deputy Prime Minister Tran Hong Ha under Decision No. 500/QD-TTg. The approval of PDP8 will heavily influence the development of green energies in Vietnam and guide Vietnam toward the objective of reaching net-zero emissions by 2050. PDP8 will also have an impact on the adoption of the use of green energy technologies for both industrial and non-industrial applications. The key takeaways from the PDP8 are as follows:
Primary goal
PDP8 sets out the goal of ensuring national energy security for Vietnam by 2050 to meet the target of socio-economic development with an average GDP growth rate of about 7%/year in the period of 2021-2030; 6.5%-7.5%/year for the period 2031-2050.
Regarding the priority in development of renewable energy sources, renewable energy is aimed to account for 30.9 – 39.2% by 2030. The goal is to achieve a renewable energy ratio of 47% according to the commitment on equitable energy transition with Vietnam (JETP). With an orientation to 2050, the ratio of renewable energy is expected to be up to 67.5 – 71.5%. Hydropower, onshore and offshore wind power, self-consumption wind and solar energy are all encouraged for growth in the energy sector.
Estimated Capacity for 2030 – 2050
According to the PDP8, by 2030, the planned energy resource for local consumption shall reach 150,489 MW consisting of: (i) Hydro energy: 19.5% (29,346MW); (ii) Coal-fired power: 20% (30,127MW), (iii) Domestic gas: 9.9% (14,930MW); (iv) LNG: 14.9% (22,400MW); (v) onshore wind power 14.5% (21,880MW); (vi) offshore wind power: 4% (6,000MW); (vii) solar power: 8.5% (12,836MW); (viii) biomass and WTE 1.5% (2,270MW), (ix) storage battery energy around 0.2% (3,00MW) and (x) foreign imported power 3.3% (5,000MW). Meanwhile, the capacity for exporting is 5,000 – 10,000 MW.
By 2050, Vietnam’s total installed power capacity will amount to approximately 490,529 MW – 573,129MW, consisting of: (i) coal-fired: coal is no longer used for power generation (0%); (ii) LNG to power projects converted to fully use hydrogen: 16,400MW – 20,900MW (3.3-3.6%); (iii) LNG to power projects which jointly use hydrogen: 4,500MW – 9,000MW (0.8-1.8%); (iv) domestic gas-fired power projects converted to fully use hydrogen: 7,030MW (1.2-1.4); (v) domestic gas-fired power projects and converted to jointly use LNG: 7,900MW (1.4-1.6%); (vi) offshore wind power: 70,000MW – 91,500MW (14.3-16%); (vii) onshore wind power: 60,050MW – 77,050MW (12.2-13.4%); (viii) solar power: 168,594MW – 189,294MW (33-34.4%); (ix) hydropower: 36,016MW (6.3-7.3%); (x) foreign imported power: 11,042MW (1.9-2.3%); (xi) waste to energy/bio and ammoniac: 25,632MW – 32.432 (4.5-6.6%); and (xii) battery storage: 30,650MW – 45,550MW (6.2-7.9%).
Estimated Investment Demand
From 2021 to 2030, investment for power generation and transmission systems is estimated to be $134.7 billion, including $119.8 billion for power generation and $14.9 billion for transmission systems. From 2031 to 2050, investment for power generation and transmission systems is estimated to be $399.2 – $523.1 billion, including $364.3 – $511.2 billion for power generation and $34.8 – $38.6 billion for transmission systems.
Regarding land use for the development of the energy sector as a whole, 89.9-93.36 thousand ha is required for the 2021-2030 period while 169.8-195.15 thousand ha is the number for the 2031-2050 period.
Approved LNG Projects and Analysis on Potential Projects
As gas is expected to be the main source of energy for the country by 2030, including domestic gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG). PDP8 clarifies List of proposed LNG projects that have been approved for development with a targeted commercial operation (COD) date by 2030 under PDP8 includes: (i) Quang Ninh (1,500MW); (ii) Thai Binh (1,500MW); (iii) Nghi Son (1,500MW); (iv) Quang Trach 2 (1,500MW); (v) Quynh Lap/Nghi Son (1,500MW); (vi) Hai Lang Phase 1 (1,500MW); (vii) Ca Na (1,500MW); (viii) Son My 2 (2,250MW); (ix) Son My 1 (2,250MW); (x) Nhon Trach 3 & 4 (1,624MW); (xi) Hiep Phuoc Phase 1 (1,200MW); (xii) Long An 1 (1,500MW); (xiii) Bac Lieu (3,200MW). Long Son (1,500MW) and Long An 2 (1,500MW) will however have a targeted COD by 2035.
PDP8 states that the priority of Vietnam is to focus on domestic gas sources (i.e., Block B, Blue Whale and Bao Vang). LNG imports may be considered to conduct in order to ensure the demand in case of insufficient domestic gas supply. Vietnam will consider carefully to develop LNG-fired power projects, where possible, to reduce reliance on imported LNG, gradually converting to hydrogen by 2050.
Several location names are also referred in Annex 2 of PDP8 as Thai Binh, Nam Dinh, Nghi Son, Quynh Lap, Vung Ang, Chan May, Mui Ke Ga, Hiep Phuoc 2, Tan Phuoc, Ben Tre, Ca Mau. At this stage, we assume those are potential locations and backups for implementation of LNG projects but only in case other approved LNG Projects cannot be implemented and/or delayed. In other words, those names are not approved LNG Projects but the Government still opens a chance for investors to pursue until 2030 to address the power shortage in case other approved LNG Projects cannot be implemented and/ or delayed. The same also applies to other projects for stored hydropower plants listed in the PDP8. After the issuance of the Plan for Implementation by June 2023, this topic can be further discussed.
Key Legislation for Implementation of PDP8
To implement the PDP8, a plan for implementation of PDP8 shall be drafted by MOIT and submitted to the Prime Minister for approval by June 2023 (Plan for Implementation). The main instruments for bringing the PDP8 into life being the amended Electricity Law and the Law on Renewable Energy will be prepared by MOIT and it is expected that the draft for the mentioned laws will be submitted for the National Assembly’s approval by 2024. Regarding the DPPA mechanism to be in line with PDP8, the regulations on DPPA will be finalized by MOIT and submitted to the Government for approval within this year. MOIT is also tasked to coordinate and work with local authorities to review and address issues under existing regulations, agreements to address issues of projects and report to the Prime Minister for instruction/ legislation if required.
***
Please do not hesitate to contact Dr. Oliver Massmann at omassmann@duanemorris.com in case you need more analysis on the PDP8. Dr. Oliver Massmann is the General Director of Duane Morris Vietnam LLC.
DECISION No. 500/QD-TTg – Approving the national power development plan for the period of 2021 -2030, with a vision to 2050:
Decision No.500_QD-TTg_E;